An exceptionally powerful proposal by Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who was NATO SG from 2009 to 2014: Admit Ukraine fully into NATO, with the caveat that Article 5 applies only to the territory currently controlled by Ukraine – but crucially, Rasmussen implies, without pressuring Kyiv to cease the fight.
“The absolute credibility of article 5 guarantees would deter Russia from mounting attacks inside the Ukrainian territory inside NATO and so free up Ukrainian forces to go to the frontline.”
If this were to occur, this would absolutely guarantee a complete Ukrainian military victory over Russia, as well as a complete strategic victory over Russia. Because, by implication, the other Allies would cover what is now de facto free Ukraine, and Ukraine could concentrate its forces on liberating what remains. It would mean Russia would have to stop missile strikes against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, lest we retaliate against Russia collectively 👊
Frightened, the Putin regime would from that point on always have to fight on the backfoot, without being able to strike Ukraine in depth.
Allies would feel able, individually or collectively, to backfill Ukraine’s security in more ways than today, including force presence inside the free part of Ukraine, which Russia should better not to try to strike, or else Article 5 would come into play.
This would make a profound change. Of course it raises issues to do with how to transition from the current situation to that future, how quickly, whether all Allies would agree, whether we’d have another Erdogan-Orban number to deal with, and whether at least some Allies would volunteer to place forces inside free Ukraine either bilaterally or under an additional component of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (or both – as for example Poland benefits from today).
It is salutary that Rasmussen has come out with this proposal now, given the many rumours that have circulated recently (NBC reporting, Arestovych’s antics).
Of course in the very short-run it remains imperative to supply the UAF with the missing elements we still haven’t transferred – notably the full-range ATACMS, F-16s, and Taurus missiles.
But Rasmussen’s proposal has the major quality of pushing the debate forward, of promoting a more courageous and forward-leaning strategic goal for the NATO Alliance
Source: Edward Hunter Christie