Munich Security Report 2024

Tobias Bunde
Sophie Eisentraut
Leonard Schütte
Managing Editor
Natalie Knapp

Report Team
Julia Hammelehle
Nicole Koenig
Paula Köhler
Isabell Kump
Amadée Mudie-Mantz
Jintro Pauly
Sophie Witte

Production Support
Kathrin Strahl
Fynn-Niklas Franke

Table of Contents

Foreword 6
Executive Summary 9
1 Introduction: Lose-Lose? 13
Munich Security Index 2024 26
2 Eastern Europe: Shades of Gray Zone 47
3 Indo-Pacific: Shoring Up Defenses 55
4 Middle East: Abraham Discord 63
5 Sahel: Partnerships Deserted 71
6 Economics: Trade Off 79
7 Climate: Heated Atmosphere 87
8 Technology: Disconnecting the Gordian Node 95
Food for Thought 103
Appendix 107
Endnotes 107
List of Figures 119
Image Sources 122
List of Abbreviations 122
Team 123
Acknowledgments 124
Selected MSC Publications 125
About 126


Dear Reader,
This year, as we host the 60th Munich Security Conference, we are also publishing the 10th edition of the Munich Security Report – our scene setter for the conference that has by now become a tradition in itself.
Initially just a companion with a collection of interesting data, the report’s titles have over time become the unofficial mottos of the conference and its messages have repeatedly triggered lively debates in Munich and beyond.
As in previous years, the report summarizes and interprets important (if selected) developments in the world, presents eye-opening infographics, and sheds light on some of the key challenges that we will tackle in Munich and in our events and initiatives throughout the rest of the year.
Unfortunately, this year’s report reflects a downward trend in world politics, marked by an increase in geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. According to the new edition of the Munich Security Index, a key element of the report since 2021, large segments of the populations in the G7 countries believe their countries will be less secure and wealthy in ten years’ time. It’s no wonder then that many governments are rethinking their international engagement, paying closer attention to the vulnerabilities that come with interdependence and who benefits more from cooperation. But while “de-risking” in various ways is a necessary response to a changing and more dangerous geopolitical environment, a stronger focus on the relative gains of cooperation risks undermining the absolute benefits of cooperation. We must avoid ending up in ever more lose-lose situations that come with the fragmenting global order. Rather we must double our efforts to contribute to a common understanding of the rules-based international order, based on the UN Charter and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, that allows everyone to win.
After all, the problems that the report discusses are human-made – and they can be solved by us. It is not inevitable that we get caught in a downward spiral. In this sense, the report encourages all of us to think harder about how we can stop fueling a vicious cycle – and simultaneously enhance the resilience of the rules-based international order. I sincerely hope that we can collectively identify more than a few silver linings on the horizon.
As always, I would like to thank our various partners who shared analyses and contributed data or infographics to the report. I wish you a thoughtprovoking read!

Ambassador Christoph Heusgen
Chairman of the Munich Security Conference

Amid growing geopolitical tensions and rising economic uncertainty, many governments are no longer focusing on the absolute benefits of global cooperation, but are increasingly concerned that they are gaining less than others.

Continue reading: Munich Security Report 2024