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There was certainly more optimism surrounding the Ukrainian position at the start of the year than there was at the end. This is partly because of the uncertainties surrounding the level of US and European support, a matter to which I will return in my conclusion. But it was largely because of the meagre returns from Ukraine’s intensive efforts to liberate more territory.

After the Armed Forces of Ukraine reconquered the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine in early November 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian frontlines have barely moved, although both sides have spent enormous resources on their offensives.

Two months into Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, I warned about “Ukraine fatigue”. In the event, western leaders and their publics surprised everyone by how resilient their support for Ukraine turned out to be — morally, financially and (although always several steps too late) militarily.