Attitudes remain largely the same as they were at the time of the first anniversary of the invasion
As we approach the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the military situation in the beleaguered nation looks much the same now as it did a year ago.

This stalemate on the battlefield is mirrored in public opinion, with a new YouGov EuroTrack + US study (conducted in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, as well as the United States) finding attitudes unchanged from a year ago.

Two years into the war, should the West encourage negotiations or support Ukraine until Russia quits?
Resolve is strongest in Sweden, Denmark and the UK, where 50-57% think the approach should be to support Ukraine until Russia is beaten. More than four in ten Americans (43%) say the same. In each of these four countries, those willing to stand by Ukraine significantly outnumber those who want to encourage a negotiated peace, at 21-27%.

Italians tend to take the opposite view, preferring a negotiated peace even if it left Russia still in control of parts of Ukraine by 45% to 28%.

The French, German and Spanish publics are all closely divided.

Two years into the Ukraine war, how much do Western Europeans and Americans care who wins?
There are likewise great differences between countries regarding how far people care who wins the war in Ukraine. Swedes care the most, with 82% saying it matters to them “a great deal” or “a fair amount” who wins the war, including a majority (53%) who care a great deal.

In Britain, 70% say they care who wins, as do 64% in the USA.

At the other end of the scale, only 46% of Italians say the outcome of the war matters much to them.

Relatively few in any nation surveyed actively want Russia to win – Germans (14%), French people and Italians (both 11%) are the most likely to say so.

While most people in each country want Ukraine to win, the numbers differ significantly, ranging from 88% in Denmark and 85% in Sweden to 52% in Italy. In the UK that figure stands at 79% and in the US it is 72%.

Two years on, is the West doing enough to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine?
Across all eight countries surveyed, the belief is that the West is not providing enough support to Ukraine to help them ultimately repel their Russian adversaries. Swedes and Spaniards are the most likely to say so (both 64%) and Germans the least likely (44%). A majority of Britons (57%) likewise think the West is not doing enough, as do 46% of Americans.

Americans and Germans are the most likely to think that Ukraine is getting enough assistance, at 25-26%.

Two years into the war, what kind of support are Western Europeans and Americans willing to provide Ukraine?
While most across the West want Ukraine to win, and acknowledge that there is not enough support being given in order to make that happen, that does not equate to willingness to provide additional support.

Given the option to maintain, increase, or reduce aid to the beleaguered nation, the most common preference in each country surveyed is for the former, at 37-50% (except in Germany, where the 30% who want to maintain support levels are outweighed marginally by the 34% who want to reduce them).

Swedes are the most likely to want to send more support, at 30%.

In the USA, where recent attempts to get Congress to approve further funding for Ukraine have stalled, the public are relatively split – 23% want to send more support, 33% want to maintain current levels, and 26% want to reduce support.

When it comes to the kind of support people are willing to back, top of the list are ‘maintain the current sanctions regime’ (48-76%) and ‘imposing further economic sanctions on Russian interests in each country’ (44-70%).

There is also relatively strong support for sending additional weaponry and supplies to Ukraine (46-70%), although Italy is a notable outlier, with only 29% willing to back this move. In fact, fewer than 50% of Italians support any of the measures we tested.

Taking military action in Russia gathers the least in each country. Only between 13-33% support sending troops into Ukraine, and 19-38% back air strikes against Russian targets in the country.

Support for each measure has remained relatively static over the last year; in none of the European countries surveyed (the US has not been asked this question previously) has support for any measure increased by more than six points or fallen by more than four.

Nevertheless, compared to the first round of results, shortly after the invasion in 2022, enthusiasm for several of the measures is particularly diminished in Germany and Italy. These two countries are typically the least likely to want to give support to Ukraine.

With the war two years old, Europeans and Americans tend to think the conflict has at least another year to go
Unsurprisingly, given the results of the prior question, the most common belief (49-72%) is that the war has at least another war to run. This is up 4-12pts compared to last year in the European countries (the US was not surveyed last year).

Expectations that Ukraine will triumph over the next twelve months stand at only 9-13%, down slightly from last year. Few also expect that Russia will finally conquer Ukraine in the coming year, at 5-13%, effectively unchanged since 2023.

Source: YouGov

A new YouGov survey asked Americans about the possibility of another world war, the role that other countries might play, the roles they themselves might play, and how the U.S. should respond to hypothetical nuclear attacks abroad and at home. The majority of Americans believe that another world war is at least somewhat likely to happen in the next five to 10 years, but most don’t think they would volunteer to serve in military roles or non-combatant roles if the U.S. were to be involved.

22% of Americans think it’s very likely that there will be another world war within the next five to 10 years; 39% say it’s somewhat likely. One-third of Republicans think it’s very likely that there will be another world war in the next decade; 20% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree.

If another world war were to break out, 77% of Americans believe the U.S. would be involved. Just 6% say the U.S. would not be involved, and the remaining 18% are unsure.

72% believe that if another world war were to break out, Russia would be involved and would be on a different side than the U.S. A similar percentage (69%) say the same of China.

The countries that Americans are most likely to say would be involved in a hypothetical global conflict and on the same side as the U.S. are the United Kingdom (67%), Ukraine (58%), and Israel (58%).

If there were to be a world war in which the U.S. and their allies were fighting against Russia, China, or both, Americans are more likely to say that the Western nations would win than to say they would lose.

In the case of a war involving Russia and its allies, 53% think Western nations and their allies would win. If the war were to be China and their allies facing Western nations and their allies, 48% of Americans think the Western nations would win. If both China and Russia — and their allies — were fighting Western nations and their allies in a world war, 45% of Americans say the Western nations would win. In each hypothetical war, 12% or fewer expect a loss for the Western nations.

Republicans are particularly likely to say Western nations and their allies would win against Russia (60%), China (56%), and both China and Russia together (55%).

A similar YouGov poll conducted in the U.K. found that Britons also are more likely to say Western nations and their allies would win in each scenario than say they would lose. 44% think they would win over Russia, 38% say the same about a conflict with China, and 31% think Western nations would win over China, Russia, and their allies. However, 21% of British adults believe that Western forces would lose to China, Russia, and their allies in the event of a world war.

If a world war involving the U.S. were to break out, 6% of Americans say they would volunteer for military service, 9% say they would not volunteer but would serve if called up, and 13% say they would not volunteer and would refuse to serve if called up; 60% say they don’t believe the armed forces would want them to serve due to age or disability. However, if the U.S. were under imminent threat of invasion, the percentage of people who would volunteer for military service is higher: 16%. 47% say that even in this case, they don’t believe the armed forces would want them to serve due to age or disability.

Americans are more open to the idea of serving in non-combat roles in the event of a world war. 19% say they would volunteer for this type of role; 12% would not volunteer but would serve if called up. If the U.S. were under imminent threat of invasion, 26% would volunteer for non-combat service. 42% of Americans say the government would not want them for non-combat roles for reasons related to age or disability; 38% say the government would not want them to serve for these reasons even if the U.S. were under imminent threat of invasion.

Many Americans believe that nuclear weapons would play a role in potential global conflicts. 68% of Americans say it’s likely that a future world war would involve the use of nuclear weapons, including 64% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans.

YouGov’s survey also asked about specific scenarios related to the use of nuclear weapons by Russia and China.

If Russia were to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine — which Russia president Vladimir Putin has said his country is ready to do if Russia’s sovereignty or independence is threatened — most Americans say the U.S. should take action of some kind, though few favor the use of nuclear weapons in response.

If Russia were to use a small nuclear weapon against a Ukrainian military target — and if the U.S. and Western nations were not already at war with Russia — 11% of Americans think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation against Russia. 21% say the best course of action would be to declare war against Russia, but not use nuclear weapons, while 30% say the U.S. should take action short of declaring war.

If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon against a city in Ukraine, 13% think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation and 22% think the country should declare war but not use nuclear weapons. 28% think the U.S should take action short of declaring war.

Similar majorities of Americans think the U.S. and other Western nations should take action of some kind in the event of China using nuclear weapons against Taiwan — but use of nuclear weapons in response is unpopular. If China were to use a small nuclear weapon against a Taiwanese military target, 11% think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation and 22% think the U.S. should declare war but not use nuclear weapons. 27% think the U.S. should take action short of declaring war and 13% say it should take no action.

If China were to use a nuclear weapon against a city in Taiwan, 14% think the U.S. should launch a nuclear retaliation, 23% think it should declare war but not use nuclear weapons and 25% think it should take action short of declaring war.

There is far more support for nuclear retaliation — though still far less than majority support — in the case of a hypothetical scenario in which the U.S. were the target of a nuclear attack. If another country were to use a small nuclear weapon against a U.S. military target, 27% would support nuclear retaliation and 30% think the U.S. should declare war but not use nuclear weapons.

If a nuclear weapon were used against a city in the U.S., 38% think the best option would be to launch a nuclear retaliation against that country and 27% think the U.S. should declare war but not use nuclear weapons.

Source: YouGov