A Ukrainian soldier after loading shells into an American-made Paladin howitzer near Bakhmut last year. Russian operatives are laying the groundwork for what could be a stronger push to support U.S. candidates who oppose aiding Ukraine.Credit…Mauricio Lima for The New York Times

Russia has intensified its online efforts to derail military funding for Ukraine in the United States and Europe, largely by using harder-to-trace technologies to amplify arguments for isolationism ahead of the U.S. elections, according to disinformation experts and intelligence assessments.

In recent days, intelligence agencies have warned that Russia has found better ways to hide its influence operations, and the Treasury Department issued sanctions last week against two Russian companies that it said supported the Kremlin’s campaign.

The stepped-up operations, run by aides to President Vladimir V. Putin and Russian military intelligence agencies, come at a critical moment in the debate in the United States over support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. While opposition to additional aid may have started without Russian influence, the Kremlin now sees an opportunity.

Russian operatives are laying the groundwork for what could be a stronger push to support candidates who oppose aiding Ukraine, or who call for pulling the United States back from NATO and other alliances, U.S. officials and independent researchers say.

Investigators say that firms working in the “Doppelgänger” network — and Russian intelligence agencies duplicating the tactics — are using the techniques to replicate and distort legitimate news sites in order to undermine continued aid to Ukraine.

These techniques are subtle and far more skillful than what Russia attempted in 2016, when it made up Facebook posts or tweets in the names of nonexistent Americans, and used them to fuel protests over immigration or other hot-button issues.

The loosely linked “Doppelgänger” creates fake versions of real news websites in the United States, Israel, Germany and Japan, among other countries. It often promotes websites previously associated with Russia’s military intelligence agency, known as the G.R.U.

The result is that much of the original speech is First Amendment-protected — say a member of Congress declaring that resources being sent to Ukraine should instead be used to patrol the southern border of the United States. But the amplification is engineered in Russia or by Russian influencers.

Mr. Putin has given responsibility for a growing number of influence operations to a key lieutenant, Sergei Kiriyenko, according to American and European officials. The Treasury Department last Wednesday imposed sanctions on people associated with Mr. Kiriyenko’s operations.

Researchers at Alethea, an anti-disinformation company, have identified a group affiliated with the G.R.U. that is using hard-to-detect techniques to spread similar messages on social media. A report by Alethea echoed a recent assessment by American intelligence agencies that said Russia would continue to “better hide their hand” while conducting influence operations.

“The network demonstrates an evolution of Russian objectives with their information operations,” Lisa Kaplan, the firm’s founder and chief executive, said in an interview. “Where the Russians previously sought to sow chaos, now they appear to be singularly focused on influencing democracies to elect candidates that do not support sending aid to Ukraine — which in turn supports isolationist, protectionist candidates and policies.”

“This long-term strategy, if effective, would result in reduced support for Ukraine globally,” she said.

American officials note, however, that these techniques make identifying — and calling out — Russian operations particularly difficult.

In the 2016 election, the Internet Research Agency, a Russian troll farm that waged information warfare against the United States, spewed out thousands of social media posts, pretending they were from Americans. By the 2020 election, the National Security Agency learned how to disrupt the operations inside Russia.

Moscow moved to shut down the Internet Research Agency after its founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, staged a short-lived mutiny against the Russian military last year. People affiliated with the group remain active. But U.S. officials and experts say it is no longer the main Russian influence effort.

“The Internet Research Agency in many ways was just a place holder for what became a much more expansive information effort in traditional media and social media,” said Clint Watts, the general manager of Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center.

The latest efforts are more directly controlled by the Kremlin. Before the Treasury sanctions last week, the State Department outlined what it said were efforts by the two Russian companies, the Social Design Agency, a public relations company, and Structura National Technologies, an information technology firm, to create disinformation campaigns.

American intelligence agencies do not believe the Kremlin has begun its full-bore influence effort. Mr. Putin will probably shift at some point from the anti-Ukraine messaging to influence operations that more directly support the candidacy of former President Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia argues that the United States has sought to influence Russian politics, including the presidential election this month.Credit…Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times

Mr. Putin is not likely to order a major effort in the presidential election until after the party conventions this summer, officials and experts said.

“What we’ve observed is the Russians, and a number of other adversarial countries, thinking about how and when they might influence the election,” said Jim Himes, Democrat of Connecticut and a senior member of the House Intelligence Committee.

Mr. Putin argues that the United States has sought to influence Russian politics, including the presidential election this month, in which he was, unsurprisingly, re-elected by an overwhelming margin. It is not clear how much Mr. Putin regards U.S. sanctions issued after the death of the opposition leader Aleksei A. Navalny as a kind of interference in his politics.

“Putin believes in his heart that we meddle in his elections,” Mr. Himes said. “Things like contact with dissident groups or amplifying Navalny’s message. Putin sees all of that as interference on the part of the U.S. He regards things like senators and congressmen criticizing his election as election interference.”

The Russian activity captivating American attention is not limited to influence operations. Russia’s S.V.R., the intelligence agency that was most active in the 2016 election and that was behind the “SolarWinds” hack that gained entry to scores of government agencies and major American companies, has been in a monthslong attack on Microsoft. The effort appears aimed at gaining access to emails and corporate data.

And U.S. officials say that ransomware attacks continue to surge from Russian territory.

A wave of such attacks prompted President Biden and Mr. Putin’s only leader-to-leader summit, in 2021. An effort to work together on stemming those attacks collapsed as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began the next year. Today, the hacking campaigns reap millions of dollars for criminal groups, while often serving the Kremlin’s agenda of disrupting American health care, government services and utilities.

In their annual threat assessment, the intelligence agencies said that Russia was trying to sow discord among voters in the United States and its allies around the world, and that the war in Ukraine “will continue to feature heavily in its messaging.”

“Moscow views U.S. elections as opportunities and has conducted influence operations for decades,” the intelligence report said. “Russia is contemplating how U.S. electoral outcomes in 2024 could impact Western support to Ukraine and probably will attempt to affect the elections in ways that best support its interests and goals.”

Russia is likely to be the most active foreign power seeking to influence the presidential election, though China and Iran have also stepped up their efforts, Mr. Himes said.

“It’s important to remember that the nature of election meddling is very different when you’re talking about the Russians,” Mr. Himes said. “The Russians are orders of magnitude more intense and more focused on what we’ve seen from the Chinese, Iranians and others.”

After the 2016 vote, Democrats and Republicans fiercely debated whether Mr. Putin simply wanted to create chaos in the American electorate or actively supported Mr. Trump. The intelligence agencies concluded in that election, and in 2020, that Russia sought to bolster Mr. Trump.

Intelligence agencies believe the Russian government again favors Mr. Trump’s election, largely because of his skepticism about aid to Ukraine. But how explicitly Russian influence operations will support Mr. Trump or denigrate Mr. Biden is unknown, according to American officials.

Source: The New York Times

“History has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death,” President Biden said in his Oval Office address on Thursday.
Credit…Tom Brenner for The New York Times

President Biden delivered remarks from the Oval Office on Thursday on the wars between Israel and Hamas, and Ukraine and Russia. The following is a transcript of his remarks, as recorded by The New York Times.

Good evening, my fellow Americans.

We’re facing an inflection point in history. One of those moments where the decisions we make today are going to determine the future for decades to come. That’s what I’d like to talk with you about tonight.

Now earlier this morning I returned from Israel. They tell me I’m the first American president to travel there during a war. I met with the prime minister and members of his cabinet, and most movingly, I met with Israelis who had personally lived through the horrific horror of the attack by Hamas on the 7th of October. More than 1,300 people slaughtered in Israel, including at least 32 American citizens. Scores of innocents from infants to the elderly, grandparents, Israelis, Americans taken hostage. As I told the families of Americans being held captive by Hamas, we’re pursuing every avenue to bring their loved ones home. As president, there is no higher priority for me than the safety of Americans held hostage.

The terrorist group Hamas unleashed pure unadulterated evil in the world, but sadly, the Jewish people know, perhaps better than anyone, that there is no limit to the depravity of people when they want to inflict pain on others.

In Israel, I saw a people who are strong, determined, resilient and also angry, in shock and in deep, deep pain. I also spoke with President Abbas, the Palestinian Authority, and reiterated that the United States remains committed to the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and to self-determination. The actions of Hamas terrorists don’t take that right away.

Like so many others, I’m heartbroken by the tragic loss of Palestinian life, including the explosion at the hospital in Gaza, which was not done by the Israelis. We mourn every innocent life lost. We can’t ignore the humanity of innocent Palestinians who only want to live in peace and have an opportunity.

You know, the assault on Israel echoes nearly 20 months of war, tragedy and brutality inflicted on the people of Ukraine, people that were very badly hurt since Putin launched his all-out invasion.

We’ve not forgotten the mass graves, the bodies found bearing signs of torture, rape used as a weapon by the Russians, and thousands and thousands of Ukrainian children forcibly taken into Russia, stolen from their parents.

It’s sick.

Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common. They both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy — completely annihilate it. Hamas’ stated purpose for existing is the destruction of the state of Israel and the murder of Jewish people. Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people. Hamas uses Palestinian civilians as human shields, and innocent Palestinian families are suffering greatly because of them.

Meanwhile, Putin denies Ukraine has, or ever had, real statehood. He claims the Soviet Union created Ukraine. And just two weeks ago, he told the world that if the United States and our allies withdraw — and if the United States withdraws, our allies will as well — military support for Ukraine would have, quote, a week left to live.

But we’re not withdrawing.

I know these conflicts can seem far away, and it’s natural to ask: Why does this matter to America? So let me share with you why making sure Israel and Ukraine succeed is vital for America’s national security.

You know, history has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. They keep going. And the cost and the threats to America and the world keep rising.

So if we don’t stop Putin’s appetite for power and control in Ukraine, he won’t limit himself just to Ukraine. He’s — Putin’s already threatened to remind, quote, remind Poland that their western land was a gift from Russia. One of his top advisers, a former president of Russia, has called Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania Russia’s Baltic provinces.

These are all NATO allies. For 75 years, NATO has kept peace in Europe. And has been the cornerstone of American security. And if Putin attacks a NATO ally, we will defend every inch of NATO, which a treaty requires and calls for.

We’ll have something that we do not seek. Make it clear — we do not seek — we do not seek to have American troops fighting in Russia or fighting against Russia.

Beyond Europe, we know that our allies, and maybe most importantly our adversaries and competitors, are watching. They’re watching our response in Ukraine as well. And if we walk away and let Putin erase Ukraine’s independence, would-be aggressors around the world would be emboldened to try the same. The risk of conflict and chaos could spread in other parts of the world: in the Indo-Pacific, in the Middle East, especially in the Middle East. Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. And we’ll continue to hold them accountable, I might add.

The United States and our partners across the region are working to build a better future for the Middle East. One where the Middle East is more stable, better connected to its neighbors, and through innovative projects like the India, Middle East and Europe rail corridor that I announced this year at the summit of the world’s biggest economies, more predictable markets, more employment, less rage, less grievances, less war when connected. It benefits the people. It would benefit the people of the Middle East, and it would benefit us.

American leadership is what holds the world together. American alliances are what keep us, America, safe. American values are what make us a partner that other nations want to work with. To put all that at risk if we walk away from Ukraine, if we turn our backs on Israel, it’s just not worth it.

That’s why tomorrow I’m going to send to Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs, to support our critical partners, including Israel and Ukraine. It’s a smart investment that’s going pay dividends for American security for generations, help us keep American troops out of harm’s way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful and more prosperous for our children and grandchildren.

In Israel, we must make sure that they have what they need to protect their people today and always. The security package I’m sending to Congress and asking Congress to do is an unprecedented commitment to Israel’s security that will sharpen Israel’s qualitative military edge, which we’ve committed to: the qualitative military edge. We’re going make sure Iron Dome continues to guard the skies over Israel. We’re going to make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel’s stronger than ever and prevent this conflict from spreading.

Look, at the same time, President Netanyahu and I discussed again, yesterday, the critical need for Israel to operate by the laws of war. That means protecting civilians in combat as best as they can. The people of Gaza urgently need food, water and medicine.

Yesterday, in discussions with the leaders of Israel and Egypt, I secured an agreement for the first shipment of humanitarian assistance from the United Nations to Palestinian civilians in Gaza. If Hamas does not divert or steal this shipment, these shipments, we’re going to provide an opening for sustained delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians.

As I said in Israel, as hard as it is, we cannot give up on peace. We cannot give up on a two-state solution.

Israel and Palestinians equally deserve to live in safety, dignity and peace.

You know, and here at home we have to be honest with ourselves. In recent years, too much hate has given too much oxygen, fueling racism, a rise in antisemitism, Islamic-phobia, right here in America.

It’s also intensified in the wake of recent events that led to the horrific threats and attacks that both shock us and break our hearts.

On Oct. 7, terror attacks have triggered deep scars and terrible memories in the Jewish community. Today, Jewish families worried about being targeted in school, wearing symbols of their faith walking down the street, or going out about their daily lives. And I know many of you in the Muslim American community, the Arab American community, the Palestinian American community and so many others are outraged and hardened saying to yourselves, “Here we go again with Islamophobia and the distrust we saw after 9/11.”

Just last week, a mother was brutally stabbed. A little boy here in the United States, a little boy who just turned 6 years old, was murdered in their home outside of Chicago. His name was Wadea. Wadea, a proud American, a proud Palestinian American family.

We can’t stand by and stand silent when this happens. We must without equivocation denounce antisemitism. We must also without equivocation denounce Islamophobia.

And to all you hurting, those of you who are hurting, I want you to know I see you. You belong. And I want to say this to you: You’re all America. You’re all America.

This is in a moment where — you know, in moments like these, when fear and suspicion, anger and rage run hard — that we have to work harder than ever to hold on to the values that make us who we are. We’re a nation of religious freedom, freedom of expression. We all have a right to debate and disagree, without fear of being targeted in schools or workplaces or in our communities.

We must renounce violence and vitriol, see each other not as enemies, but as fellow Americans.

When I was in Israel yesterday, I said that when America experienced the hell of 9/11, we felt enraged as well, and while we sought and got justice, we made mistakes. So I caution the government of Israel not to be blinded by rage.

And here in America, let us not forget who we are. We reject all forms, all forms of hate, whether against Muslims, Jews, or anyone. That’s what great nations do. And we are a great nation.

On Ukraine, I’m asking Congress to make sure we can continue to send Ukraine the weapons they need to defend themselves and their country without interruption, so Ukraine can stop Putin’s brutality in Ukraine.

They are succeeding. When Putin invaded Ukraine, he thought he would take Kyiv and all of Ukraine in a matter of days. Well over a year later, Putin has failed, and he continues to fail.

Kyiv still stands because the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine has regained more than 50 percent of the territory Russian troops once occupied. Backed by U.S.-led coalition of more than 50 countries around the world, all doing its part to support Kyiv.

What would happen if we walked away? We are the essential nation.

Meanwhile, Putin has turned to Iran and North Korea to buy attack drones and ammunition to terrorize Ukrainian cities and people.

From the outset, I have said I will not send American troops to fight in Ukraine. All Ukraine is asking for is help, for the weapons, munitions, the capacity, the capability to push invading Russian forces off their land. And the air defense systems to shoot down Russian missiles before they destroy Ukrainian cities.

Let me be clear about something.

We send Ukraine equipment sitting in our stockpiles. And when we use the money allocated by Congress, we use it to replenish our own stores, our own stockpiles, with new equipment. Equipment that defends America and is made in America. Patriot missiles for air defense batteries, made in Arizona. Artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas. And so much more.

You know, just as in World War II, today patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom.

Let me close with this:

Earlier this year, I boarded Air Force One for a secret flight to Poland. There I boarded a train, with blacked-out windows for a 10-hour ride each way to Kyiv to stand with the people of Ukraine ahead of the one-year anniversary of their brave fight against Putin. I’m told I was the first American to enter a war zone not controlled by the United States military since President Lincoln.

With me was just a small group of security personnel and a few advisers. But when I exited that train and met Zelensky, President Zelensky, I didn’t feel alone. I was bringing with me the idea of America, the promise of America, to the people who are today fighting for the same things we fought for 250 years ago: freedom, independence, self-determination. And as I walked through Kyiv with President Zelensky, with air raid sirens sounding in the distance, I felt something I’ve always believed more strongly than ever before: America is a beacon to the world, still, still.

We are, as my friend Madeleine Albright said, the indispensable nation.

Tonight, there are innocent people all over the world who hope because of us. Who believe in a better life because of us. Who are desperate not to be forgotten by us. And who are waiting for us.

But time is of the essence.

I know we have our divisions at home. We have to get past them. We can’t let petty, partisan, angry politics get in the way of our responsibilities as a great nation. We cannot and will not let terrorists like Hamas and tyrants like Putin win. I refuse to let that happen.

In moments like these, we have to remind — we have to remember who we are. We are the United States of America. The United States of America. And there is nothing, nothing beyond our capacity, if we do it together.

My fellow Americans, thank you for your time. May God bless you all, and may God protect our troops.

Джерело: The New York Times